CBAM impact on international trade: redistribution, competitiveness and carbon leakage

CBAM's trade impact by the numbers

6 sectors

Cement, steel, aluminium, fertilisers, hydrogen, electricity — the most carbon-intensive traded goods

2026–2034

Phase-in period: CBAM rate rises from 2.5% to 100% as free allocation is phased out (Art. 31)

Art. 9

Carbon price deduction — exporting countries with carbon pricing see lower CBAM costs, creating a competitive advantage

How CBAM reshapes international trade

Carbon leakage prevention: the core objective

Art. 1: CBAM prevents carbon leakage by ensuring imports face the same carbon cost as EU production. Without CBAM, EU producers competing with unpriced imports lose competitiveness, incentivising relocation.

Trade flow redistribution: origin matters

Countries with lower default emissions (cleaner grids, modern plants) or carbon pricing (Art. 9 deduction) become more competitive. High-emission origins face higher CBAM costs.

Incentive for exporting countries to adopt carbon pricing

Art. 9 creates a direct financial incentive: countries that implement carbon pricing give their exporters a competitive advantage in the EU market through the CBAM deduction.

Developing country implications

The regulation includes provisions for technical assistance. Countries that cannot provide actual emissions data face default values with mark-up — a cost disadvantage that can be addressed through data transparency.

EU producer competitiveness: the phase-out question

Art. 31 phases out free allocation as CBAM ramps up. EU producers lose their free allocation but gain a level playing field against imports. The net effect on competitiveness depends on the sector.

Long-term equilibrium: carbon pricing as trade standard

By 2034, CBAM at 100% establishes that carbon cost is a standard component of trade in carbon-intensive goods — regardless of origin.

Three misconceptions about CBAM's trade impact

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MISCONCEPTION 1 — CBAM IS PROTECTIONISM

Framing CBAM as a trade barrier

CBAM is designed as a carbon leakage prevention mechanism, not a trade barrier. It applies the same carbon cost to imports that EU producers already pay under the EU ETS. Countries with their own carbon pricing receive an Art. 9 deduction.

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MISCONCEPTION 2 — DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY HIT

Assuming all developing countries face high CBAM costs

CBAM costs depend on emissions intensity, not development status. Some developing countries with hydroelectric power have low aluminium defaults. Others with coal-heavy grids have high defaults. The data, not the label, determines the cost.

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MISCONCEPTION 3 — CBAM IS STATIC

Treating 2026 as the permanent state

CBAM is a dynamic mechanism. The rate escalates from 2.5% (2026) to 100% (2034). Trade flow adjustments will accelerate as the rate rises.

What you receive: 12 deliverables in one ZIP file

CBAMCheck generates a complete CBAM compliance dossier — not a single PDF. 12 structured documents delivered as a ZIP file, each citing the specific article of Reg. (EU) 2023/956 it addresses.

Scope Assessment

Determines whether your imports fall under CBAM and which obligations apply. Art. 2 + Art. 2a of Reg. (EU) 2023/956.

Embedded Emissions Calculation

Calculates embedded emissions per tonne using default values from Implementing Reg. (EU) 2025/2621 or your actual data. Art. 7 + Annex IV.

CBAM Certificate Estimation

Estimates the number of certificates required and the projected cost, adjusted for free allocation (Art. 31).

Draft CBAM Declaration

Pre-structured declaration following Art. 6(2) requirements: quantities, emissions, certificates, carbon price.

Carbon Price Documentation

Documents any carbon price paid in the country of origin for Art. 9 deduction. Pre-formatted for the CBAM Registry.

Annex V Record Template

Record-keeping template compliant with Annex V requirements. Ready for verifier review.

Verification Preparation

Structured preparation for Art. 8 verification by an accredited verifier. Annex VI checklist included.

Supplier Letter Template

Model letter in English requesting emissions data and installation information from your third-country supplier.

Compliance Calendar (.ics)

Importable calendar with quarterly certificate obligations (Art. 22(2)), annual declaration deadline (30 September), and key milestones.

Executive Summary

One-page overview of your CBAM exposure: cost estimate, timeline, risk areas. Ready for management or board reporting.

Interactive HTML Dashboard

Standalone HTML dashboard with 2026–2032 projections reflecting free allocation phase-out (Art. 31). Works offline, no subscription.

Compliance Calendar Document

Visual calendar of all CBAM deadlines, reporting windows and certificate purchase schedules.

Generated from your input data, in your browser. No data leaves your device.

Estimate your CBAM exposure

Select your sector and country of origin. CBAMCheck searches through 13,566 official records from Implementing Reg. (EU) 2025/2621 and shows the result with the 2026 mark-up included.

Quick CBAM Calculator

Average European Commission default values per sector and country of origin.

Sector

Country of origin

Tonnes/year

Default emissions (tCO₂e/t)—

Mark-up 2026 (10%)—

Total emissions with mark-up—

CBAM rate 2026 (2.5%)—

Estimated certificates—

This is a quick estimate. Your complete dossier includes projections through 2032, an editable interactive dashboard, and 10 PDF documents.

Generate your complete dossier — €299 →

Average values per sector from Implementing Reg. (EU) 2025/2621. The complete dossier uses the exact CN code of your goods, not the sector average. Estimated EU ETS price: €75/tCO₂e.

What CBAM compliance costs with each alternative

Feature	Free tool	CBAMCheck	SaaS Enterprise
Price	Free	€299 (one-time)	€1,990–€4,800/year
Model	Generic template	12 professional deliverables	Annual subscription
Default values	Not included	13,566 (Reg. 2025/2621)	Partial
Interactive dashboard	No	HTML, 7-year projection	Platform-locked
Supplier letter	No	English template included	Variable
Art. 8 verification prep	No	Included	Variable
Privacy	Variable	100% browser-side	Data on server
Multi-company support	No	Via Professional Pack	Yes

Choose your licence

1 DOSSIER

€299

/ dossier

10 professional PDF documents
Interactive HTML dashboard (2026–2032 projection)
13,566 official default values integrated
English supplier letter template
Importable .ics calendar
10 regenerations · 30 days
1 licence = 1 importing company

Get your individual licence →

PROFESSIONAL PACK

€1,999

70 generations · 1 key

70 generations with a single key
70 complete dossiers (12 deliverables each)
Switch product between generations
Ideal for customs brokers
For consultants billing CBAM compliance

70 interactive HTML Dashboards × product (projection 2026–2032). Real-time tables and charts with variable calculations. No technical training required. Fully intuitive.

🔒 Data stays on your computer. No information shared with third parties.

Request Professional Pack →

How your licence works

1 licence = 1 importing company. You pay €299 for the dossier you generate now. The licence is linked to your company name + EORI.

Up to 10 regenerations of the ZIP to correct data, adjust goods or update technical information.

30-day editing window from first activation. Within that period you can regenerate the dossier as many times as needed (up to 10).

The downloaded dossier is yours forever. It does not expire and is not tied to any subscription. The 10 PDFs, HTML dashboard and .ics calendar remain functional offline.

The EU CBAM portal ASKS for data. CBAMCheck CALCULATES it.

THE EU CBAM PORTAL

Asks you to declare data

The EU CBAM Registry (Art. 14) requires you to submit total embedded emissions, number of certificates and carbon price documentation. It does not calculate these for you. You must arrive with the numbers ready.

CBAMCHECK

Calculates the data you need to declare

CBAMCheck takes your import data (tonnes, CN codes, country of origin) and generates the embedded emissions calculation, certificate estimation, carbon price documentation and all supporting records. You download the dossier and use it to complete your declaration in the CBAM Registry.

Enforcement: what happens when CBAM certificates are missing

Art. 26 of Reg. (EU) 2023/956 sets the penalties.

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Authorised declarant: penalty identical to EU ETS rate

EU ETS rate per certificate

Art. 26(1): an authorised CBAM declarant who fails to surrender the required certificates by 30 September faces a penalty identical to the excess emissions penalty under Art. 16(3) of Directive 2003/87/EC, increased per Art. 16(4). The penalty applies per certificate not surrendered. Payment does not release the obligation to surrender outstanding certificates (Art. 26(3)).

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Unauthorised importer: penalty 3–5 times the standard rate

3–5×

Art. 26(2): anyone introducing goods without authorisation faces a penalty of 3 to 5 times the standard penalty, depending on duration, gravity, scope, intent and cooperation. Also applies to importers exceeding the de minimis threshold (50 tonnes, Art. 2a) without authorisation (Art. 26(2a)).

Analysing CBAM costs across your entire supply chain?

The Professional Pack covers 70 dossier generations. Compare CBAM costs across every origin, sector and product — data-driven supply chain optimisation.

Request Professional Pack →

70 generations · 1 key · Multi-origin trade flow analysis

What CBAMCheck guarantees and what it does not

CBAMCheck generates a document structured according to Art. 6 and Art. 7 + Annex IV of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 from the information you enter. The truthfulness, accuracy and completeness of that information is your responsibility as importer or authorised CBAM declarant.

We guarantee that the document structure follows Regulation (EU) 2023/956 and that the legal references cited are correct. We do not guarantee that a specific document will be accepted by a national competent authority in a specific case.

CBAMCheck is not legal advice. For specific situations, consult a lawyer or specialised regulatory consultancy.

Frequently asked questions

Is this a subscription?

No. One-time payment. The licence includes 30 days of editing and 10 regenerations. The downloaded dossier is yours forever.

Can I request a refund?

By activating the licence you give express consent for the immediate generation of digital content under Art. 16(m) of Directive (EU) 2011/83, waiving the 14-day withdrawal right. Refunds are accepted only for reproducible technical faults.

What if the regulation changes?

If the regulation changes during your licence validity, you can regenerate the document with the updated version of the generator at no extra cost.

Does CBAM violate WTO rules?

The EU designed CBAM to comply with WTO principles, including GATT Article III (national treatment) and Article XX (general exceptions for environmental protection). The mechanism applies the same carbon cost to imports that EU producers bear under the ETS, treating domestic and imported goods equally.

Which countries benefit from CBAM?

Countries with carbon pricing systems (Art. 9 deduction) and countries with low-emission production benefit. UK and Korean exporters can claim deductions. Countries with clean energy grids have lower default values. Countries with no carbon pricing and high-emission production face the highest costs.

How does CBAMCheck help with trade flow analysis?

CBAMCheck's calculator and full dossier allow importers to compare CBAM costs across origins — revealing which sourcing decisions are most cost-effective under the new carbon pricing regime.

Official legal sources

⚠️ Important notice: CBAMCheck is a self-assessment documentation tool, not legal advice and not a third-party audit. The document is generated from your input data. You are responsible for the accuracy of the data you provide. CBAMCheck does not replace a qualified professional assessment.